Saturday, December 22, 2007

Mortgage Brokers Role in Housing Meltdown

I recently heard of a Harvard University housing study which stated that one of the biggest reasons for the current US housing market meltdown is the predatory practices of many mortgage brokers around the country.

In short, the study claims that mortgage brokers which originate 45% of all mortgages and 71% of sub-prime loans have routinely steered borrowers (with deceptive practices!) towards high risk loans, because they generate much higher commissions for themselves when selling these higher risk loans.

The study claims that millions of borrowers who were eligible for normal loans were sold sub-prime loans in order for mortgage brokers to collect these hefty commissions. And of course the lender stood to make greater profits also.

Now millions of people are defaulting on these loans and millions of houses are going into foreclosure causing the housing market to collapse!

Another wonderful example of unchecked capitalism at work! Thank you mortgage brokers!! And by the way, these predatory practices are all completely legal, as we all know it is "buyer beware" even in regards to this most complicated purchase!

Below is a pretty comprehensive article regarding this matter from California Progress Report.com

Broker Abuses and Perverse Incentives

Mortgage brokers are individuals or firms who find customers for lenders and assist with the loan process. Brokers are independent contractors – they provide a way for mortgage lenders to increase their business without incurring the expense involved with employing sales staff directly. Brokers also play a key role in today’s mortgage market: According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage brokers now originate 45 percent of all mortgages, and 71 percent of subprime loans.[MBA Research Data Notes, “Residential Mortgage Origination Channels,” September 2006.]

Brokers often determine whether subprime borrowers receive a fair and helpful loan, or whether they end up with a product that is unsuitable and unaffordable. Unfortunately, given the way the current market operates, widespread abuses by mortgage brokers are inevitable.

Buying or refinancing a home is the biggest investment that most families ever make, and particularly in the subprime market, this transaction is often decisive in determining a family’s future financial security. The broker has specialized market knowledge that the borrower lacks and relies on. While brokers in California have a common-law fiduciary duty to borrowers, the subprime mortgage market, as it is structured today, gives brokers strong financial incentives to sell excessively expensive loans to borrowers.

Experts on mortgage financing have long raised concerns about problems inherent in a market dominated by broker originations. For example, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Ben S. Bernanke, recently noted that placing significant pricing discretion of mortgage loans in the hands of financially-motivated mortgage brokers can be a prescription for trouble, as it can lead to behavior that violates fair lending laws.[Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the Opportunity Finance Network’s Annual Conference, Washington, D.C. (November 1, 2006).]

A report issued by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies concurred: “Having no long term interest in the performance of the loan, a broker’s incentive is to close the loan while charging the highest combination of fees and mortgage interest rates the market will bear.”[Joint Center for Housing Studies, “Credit, Capital and Communities: The Implications of the Changing Mortgage Banking Industry for Community-Based Organizations,” Harvard University, p.4-5. Moreover, broker-originated loans “are also more likely to default than loans originated through a retail channel, even after controlling for credit and ability-to-pay factors.” Id. at 42 (citing Alexander 2003).]

In summary: Mortgage brokers, who are responsible for originating over 70 percent of loans in the subprime market, have strong incentives to make abusive loans that harm consumers, and no one is stopping them. In recent years, brokers have flooded the subprime market with unaffordable mortgages, and they have priced these mortgages at their own discretion. Given the way brokers operate today, the odds of successful homeownership are stacked against families who get loans in the subprime market.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Intelligent Life in The Universe?

I recently watched a TV show on Astronomy which got me thinking about the vastness of the Universe.

Our closest planet, our moon, is about 250,000 miles away. It takes light about a second to reach us from the moon (at the speed of light). Our galaxy, the milky way galaxy, is so immense that it takes light about 100,000 years to travel across our entire galaxy!! Scientists estimate there are about 100 billion stars (like our Sun) in our galaxy alone!

This got me thinking about how many intelligent life forms there might be in our Galaxy and low and behold there is a formula, the Drake formula, which estimates this. I'll include the formula in this post. Using this formula, conservative estimates say that there could be hundreds or even thousands of communicating civilizations in our galaxy alone!

Now for the kicker: how many galaxies are there in the universe? Well in 1999 NASA scientists calculated that there might be as many as 125 billion galaxies in the Universe, with about 3,000 galaxies (like our own, or larger) currently visible from the Hubble telescope.

So then how many intelligent civilizations might there be in the universe? Well, we know there is at least one in our galaxy, us. Drake says there could be a thousand in our galaxy alone. But lets assume there is only one, us. And if you then assume that there is 1 intelligent life form in about 1% of the 125 billion galaxies out there (some estimate as many as 500 billion galaxies) that gives you about 100 million civilizations out there. You can reduce that 1% estimate much lower and still get thousands of civilizations out there.

I think its a pretty safe bet that we are not alone in the universe, the problem is (as far as making contact) that our neighbors are very, very far away!

The Drake Formula:

The Drake Equation was developed by Frank Drake in 1961 as a way to focus on the factors which determine how many intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy. The Drake Equation is:

N= N* fp ne fl fi fc fL

The equation can really be looked at as a number of questions:

N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy
Question: How many stars are in the Milky Way Galaxy?
Answer: Current estimates are 100 billion.
fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them
Question: What percentage of stars have planetary systems?
Answer: Current estimates range from 20% to 50%.
ne is the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life
Question: For each star that does have a planetary system, how many planets are capable of sustaining life?
Answer: Current estimates range from 1 to 5.
fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves
Question: On what percentage of the planets that are capable of sustaining life does life actually evolve?
Answer: Current estimates range from 100% (where life can evolve it will) down to close to 0%.
fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves
Question: On the planets where life does evolve, what percentage evolves intelligent life?
Answer: Estimates range from 100% (intelligence is such a survival advantage that it will certainly evolve) down to near 0%.
fc is the fraction of fi that communicate
Question: What percentage of intelligent races have the means and the desire to communicate?
Answer: 10% to 20%
fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live
Question: For each civilization that does communicate, for what fraction of the planet's life does the civilization survive?
Answer: This is the toughest of the questions. If we take Earth as an example, the expected lifetime of our Sun and the Earth is roughly 10 billion years. So far we've been communicating with radio waves for less than 100 years. How long will our civilization survive? Will we destroy ourselves in a few years like some predict or will we overcome our problems and survive for millennia? If we were destroyed tomorrow the answer to this question would be 1/100,000,000th. If we survive for 10,000 years the answer will be 1/1,000,000th.
When all of these variables are multiplied together when come up with:
N, the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.
And yes, it's very boring in the Keys!

Intelligent Life in The Universe?

I recently watched a TV show on Astronomy which got me thinking about the vastness of the Universe.

Our closest planet, our moon, is about 250,000 miles away. It takes light about a second to reach us from the moon (at the speed of light). Our galaxy, the milky way galaxy, is so immense that it takes light about 100,000 years to travel across our entire galaxy!! Scientists estimate there are about 100 billion stars (like our sun) in our galaxy alone!

This got me thinking about how many intelligent life forms there might be in our Galaxy and low and behold there is a formula, the Drake formula, which estimates this. I'll include the formula in this post. Using this formula, conservative estimates say that there could be hundreds or even thousands of communicating civilizations in our galaxy alone!

Now for the kicker: how many galaxies are there in the universe? Well in 1999 NASA scientists calculated that there might be as many as 125 billion galaxies in the Universe, with about 3,000 galaxies (like our own, or larger) currently visible from the hubble telescope.

So then how many intelligent civilizations might there be in the universe? Well, we know there is at least one in our galaxy, us. Drake says there could be a thousand in our galaxy alone. But lets assume there is only one, us. And if you then assume that there is 1 life form in about 1% of the 125 billion galaxies out there (some estimate as many as 500 billion galaxies) that gives you about 100 million civilizations out there. You can reduce that 1% estimate much lower and still get thousands of civilizations out there.

I think its a pretty safe bet that we not alone in the universe, the problem is (to make contact) that our neighbors are very, very far away!

The Drake Formula:

The Drake Equation was developed by Frank Drake in 1961 as a way to focus on the factors which determine how many intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy. The Drake Equation is:

N= N* fp ne fl fi fc fL

The equation can really be looked at as a number of questions:

N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy
Question: How many stars are in the Milky Way Galaxy?
Answer: Current estimates are 100 billion.
fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them
Question: What percentage of stars have planetary systems?
Answer: Current estimates range from 20% to 50%.
ne is the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life
Question: For each star that does have a planetary system, how many planets are capable of sustaining life?
Answer: Current estimates range from 1 to 5.
fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves
Question: On what percentage of the planets that are capable of sustaining life does life actually evolve?
Answer: Current estimates range from 100% (where life can evolve it will) down to close to 0%.
fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves
Question: On the planets where life does evolve, what percentage evolves intelligent life?
Answer: Estimates range from 100% (intelligence is such a survival advantage that it will certainly evolve) down to near 0%.
fc is the fraction of fi that communicate
Question: What percentage of intelligent races have the means and the desire to communicate?
Answer: 10% to 20%
fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live
Question: For each civilization that does communicate, for what fraction of the planet's life does the civilization survive?
Answer: This is the toughest of the questions. If we take Earth as an example, the expected lifetime of our Sun and the Earth is roughly 10 billion years. So far we've been communicating with radio waves for less than 100 years. How long will our civilization survive? Will we destroy ourselves in a few years like some predict or will we overcome our problems and survive for millennia? If we were destroyed tomorrow the answer to this question would be 1/100,000,000th. If we survive for 10,000 years the answer will be 1/1,000,000th.
When all of these variables are multiplied together when come up with:
N, the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.

Monday, December 3, 2007

World Poverty & Environmental Statistics

Just wanted to take a second to post the following info:

20,000 people die each day from waterborne diseases or lack of water.
30,000 people die everyday from starvation.
150 million children world wide live on the streets.
842 million people across the world are hungry.
798 million people in the developing world are undernourished.
25 million people have died from HIV aids.
12 million children are aids orphans.

Economics

Half the world -- nearly three billion people -- live on less than 2 dollars a day.

The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the poorest 48 nations (i.e. a quarter of the world's countries) is less than the wealth of the world's three richest people combined.

20% of the population in the developed nations, consume 86% of the worlds goods.

The developing world now spends $13 on debt repayment for every $1 it receives in grants.

7 Million children die each year as a result of the debt crisis.

Today, across the world, 1.3 billion people live on less than one dollar a day; 3 billion live on under two dollars a day; 1.3 billion have no access to clean water; 3 billion have no access to sanitation; 2 billion have no access to electricity.


Resources

12 percent of the world's population uses 85 percent of its water, and these 12 percent do not live in the Third World.

To satisfy all the world's sanitation and food requirements would cost only $13 billion, hardly as much as the people of the United States and the European Union spend each year on perfume.

42 million people are living with HIV/AIDS in the world – 92.8 percent of them in developing countries. 3 million are children under the age of 15. 2.9 million of those children live in the developing world.

Each gallon of gas used by a car contributes almost 20 pounds of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere

94% of the worlds forest are unprotected

1.3% of forest is lost every year in South America

For more information visit PlantingPeace.org

The world is a sad, sad place. Give thanks for what you have.

 
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